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Ice accumulation has cut grain barge tonnage on the Mississippi, Illinois and Ohio rivers by more than 60% in the first two weeks of January. An Illinois River elevator accepting only rail-loaded deliveries cut its basis to minus 20 cents from minus 7 cents, leaving farmers about 13 cents per bushel lower.
Transport constraints during the Sept-Feb export window weaken local soybean cash bids and can divert demand to Brazil and Argentina. Basis is the channel through which the disruption reaches farm-level prices.
brownfieldagnews.comMark Dorenkamp2018年1月22日在过去 297 次看跌的物流事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
