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An analysis of USDA's cattle inventory report argues the feeder cattle shortage is overstated. Estimated feeder supply outside feedlots was 26.1 million head, down 607,000 from a year earlier.
The calf crop rose only 2 percent against a 3.5 percent cowherd increase.
If feeder supplies are larger than the shortage narrative suggests, calf and feeder prices could face less upward pressure. Buyers may see more supply than the market expects.
在过去 126 次看跌的报告事件之后,架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(52% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。