A Nature Communications study finds that during 1961–2010 crop productivity was significantly influenced by at least one large-scale climate oscillation (ENSO, IOD or NAO) across two-thirds of global cropland. The authors also report new possible links between NAO and crop productivity in Africa and the Middle East.
Recurring ENSO, IOD and NAO cycles mean a large share of global crop yields is exposed to predictable weather shocks, which can support price risk planning for feed grains. The findings are structural and do not signal an immediate supply change.
在过去 770 次中性的报告事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
在过去 563 次中性的报告事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(48% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.1%。
在过去 406 次中性的报告事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 +0.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。