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China is offering higher subsidies to farmers in four northeastern provinces to switch from corn to soybeans. The country imported 95.5 million tons of soybeans in 2017, mainly from Brazil and the U.S., and is pursuing domestic output to reduce reliance on U.S. supply.
A structural shift toward domestic Chinese soybean production would reduce long-term import demand for U.S. and Brazilian beans and meal. The effect on prices is gradual and depends on how much acreage switches.
在过去 369 次看跌的政策事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(46% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.8%),20 个交易日内为 +0.8%。
在过去 318 次看涨的政策事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(48% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。