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University of Minnesota economist Ed Usset says that weather is the main price driver this time of year, with trade a significant but secondary factor, estimating a 60/40 split. U.S. crop condition ratings are at their highest in more than 20 years while trade tensions with China and Mexico are peaking.
He sees a late June or early July rally as unlikely.
Strong crop ratings and trade-related weakness point to lower corn and soybean prices, and the lack of a likely rally means feed buyers can expect softer spot values.
brownfieldagnews.comMark Dorenkamp2018年6月15日在过去 357 次看跌的天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%（44% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +1.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 363 次看跌的天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（42% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +1.1%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Economist attributes bearish grain pricing to top crop ratings (weather ~60%) and peaking trade tensions with China (~40%), covering both supply and demand drivers.
