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UBS notes cold weather lifted US natural gas to its highest level since late 2022, with freeze-offs and the Freeport LNG shutdown disrupting supply. UBS expects end-March storage near 1.7-1.8 tcf, slightly below the five-year average, and sees near-term price pressure from milder February forecasts.
It raised its September and December price forecasts by $0.20/MMBtu on rising LNG exports.
Higher gas prices across tenors encourage switching from gas to coal in power generation, which can affect energy and processing costs for feed producers. Tighter storage and rising LNG exports support firmer gas prices later in the year.
ubs.com2025年1月23日在过去 15 次中性的天气事件之后，天然气 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -5.0%（27% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -11.3% 至 -0.9%），20 个交易日内为 +4.6%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
