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The WMO said there is a 70% chance of El Niño developing by the end of 2018, with intensity uncertain and a strong event considered unlikely. The agency noted that 2018 began with a weak La Niña and that global temperatures are tracking toward one of the warmest years on record.
A 70% chance of El Niño is a weather risk for Australian, Southeast Asian and South American crops, but WMO expects a weaker event than 2015-16, which limits the likely size of supply disruption and price impact.
reliefweb.int2018年9月10日在过去 181 次看涨的天气事件之后，棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（56% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.9% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
