Malaysia's CPO futures benchmark may trade near RM2,400 per tonne in June and July if exports stay strong, according to Palm Oil Analytics. Exports to India resumed after four months, though Malaysia's March shipments to India had fallen 97% year on year.
Production is expected to peak from August to October, which could push prices down to about RM2,200.
Resumed Indian buying supports palm prices in the near term, but seasonal production peaks are expected to weigh on them later in the year. Feed buyers should watch palm oil and its meal substitutes for near-term firmness.
在过去 133 次看涨的贸易事件之后,棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.7%(64% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.8% 至 +2.3%),20 个交易日内为 +1.7%。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Resumed Malaysian exports to India after four months imply stronger import demand and supportive near-term CPO futures, consistent with a sharp price rise on June 1.
Resumed exports to India and analyst expectations of CPO near RM2,400 reinforced bullish demand sentiment, though the forecast of a seasonal output peak tempers the outlook.