Rabobank's China Food & Agribusiness Monthly says African Swine Fever has spread across China, depressing pig feed consumption. Rabobank's base case cuts Chinese soymeal usage by 4% and feed corn usage by 8% in 2019.
State crushers have booked 13-14 million tonnes of US soybeans, with about 7 million tonnes still outstanding, and further purchases could halt if trade tensions escalate.
Lower feed demand in China reduces import needs for corn and soymeal, which is bearish for those markets. Trade-driven purchase halts add further downside risk to US soybean prices.
在过去 175 次看跌的疫病事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
在过去 167 次看跌的疫病事件之后,豆粕 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%(40% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.8% 至 +1.4%),20 个交易日内为 -0.8%。
在过去 50 次看跌的疫病事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%(58% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +2.4%),20 个交易日内为 +0.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
ASF-driven cuts to Chinese soymeal usage and the risk that crusher purchases halt reduce demand for US soy products.