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Mississippi River closures this spring bottlenecked corn and soybean shipments and pushed export premiums sharply higher. Corn export premiums have since fallen, but soybean premiums remain about 30% above normal for this time of year.
Soybean export premiums staying elevated signal that logistics constraints are still tightening soybean supply to export buyers. Corn premiums falling reflects easing congestion, which weighs on corn basis.
在过去 206 次看涨的物流事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%(56% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +2.6%),20 个交易日内为 +1.4%。
在过去 359 次看跌的物流事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%(44% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。