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Overnight wheat markets rose in the US on wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains and a dry Black Sea region, with the 15-day forecast showing no rain for HRW areas. Russian major wheat regions face a 24% precipitation deficit, and Brazil's soybean harvest is 70% complete, the most advanced in a decade.
Russia's wheat export tax falls to US$28.54 per tonne from US$29.13.
Dry conditions in US HRW and Russian growing areas threaten yields and support wheat prices, while a lower Russian export tax may encourage more Russian shipments and cap gains. Rapid Brazilian soy harvest adds to export supply pressure.
graincentral.comGuest Author2025年3月17日在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 363 次看跌的天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（42% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +1.1%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Dust storms in the Southern Plains, a dry 15-day HRW forecast and a 24% precipitation deficit in Russia support the supply-risk premium behind the rally.
Reports wind-driven dust in the Southern Plains, no rain in the HRW forecast and a Russian precipitation deficit, which are supply-risk drivers behind the rally, though the report is dated after the move.
