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Wheat rose for a second session as poor weather in major exporting countries threatened production. Coceral cut its 2024 harvest forecast for the UK and EU, Western Australia reduced its wheat crop outlook on dry weather, and parched fields in the Black Sea region threaten next year's plantings.
Lower harvest estimates from several major exporters tighten global wheat supply and support prices, with Black Sea dryness adding risk to the 2025 crop.
bloomberg.comHallie Gu, Tarso Veloso2024年9月23日在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 322 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.5% 至 +3.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Cuts to UK/EU and Western Australian crop outlooks plus dry Black Sea fields tightened the supply outlook and extended the rally on Sept 23.
Published on the move date, it reports wheat gains driven by supply threats from weather in major exporters (EU/UK cuts, Western Australia dryness, Black Sea dryness), a direct supply-side driver.
