After a risk-off sell-off in Asia, oil fell over 2%, the yuan dropped more than 0.5%, and AUD/USD approached 0.6800 as iron ore futures fell up to 6% on virus concerns. The analyst argues the move may be an overreaction amid thin holiday liquidity.
China extended its Lunar New Year holiday by three days to February 2 to slow the spread.
Broad risk aversion lowers demand expectations for energy, metals and China-linked currencies, which can pressure commodity prices. Weaker iron ore and oil also raise uncertainty for commodity-linked currencies such as the AUD.
在过去 565 次看跌的宏观事件之后,原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.4%(41% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -5.9% 至 +3.0%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 398 次看涨的宏观事件之后,人民币(每 USD 的 CNY) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(56% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +0.5%),20 个交易日内为 +0.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Risk-off Asian selloff pushed oil down more than 2% on Jan 27 amid virus fears and the holiday extension.