
An analysis from Yahoo Finance cites three drivers of crude prices in 2020: the Wuhan coronavirus, OPEC+ output adjustments, and climate-related pressure on fossil fuels. It notes WTI had fallen about 15% year to date, and KPMG's Regina Mayor estimated virus-related demand destruction at 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day.
The estimated demand loss is small relative to global consumption, so the price pressure may overstate the real effect. Energy-price swings still feed into biofuel and freight costs for feed buyers.
在过去 32 次看跌的疫病事件之后,原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -5.2%(13% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -15.0% 至 -2.4%),20 个交易日内为 -5.7%。
在过去 26 次看跌的疫病事件之后,原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -6.0%(15% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -13.3% 至 -2.0%),20 个交易日内为 -6.8%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。