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Russian customs data showed December 2019 major grain exports of 2.7 million tonnes, down 38% year on year, and July-December exports down 16.5%. The Ministry of Agriculture is drafting a 20 million tonne export quota for January to June 2020, which the author expects will not be filled.
A proposed export quota and weak Russian shipments point to tighter Black Sea wheat and barley export supply, supporting world prices, though the quota itself is unlikely to bind this season.
在过去 182 次看涨的政策事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(52% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +1.4%),20 个交易日内为 -0.3%。
历史可比事件尚不足,暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 318 次看涨的政策事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(48% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。