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China is expected to ship at least 1.2 million tonnes of urea to India, marking a ramp-up after Beijing loosened export controls. The volume would make up at least two-thirds of India's latest tender, with shipments due to leave by September 24.
Prices surged to a four-year high in April but have since fallen back.
Chinese tonnage flowing to India's tender increases available urea supply and signals improving market balance, which is bearish for nitrogen fertilizer prices.
business-standard.comBloomberg2026年8月27日在过去 81 次看跌的贸易事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.0%（28% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -7.2% 至 +0.4%），20 个交易日内为 -5.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
China's large urea shipments to India in the tender (published Aug 27, just before the move) reshape trade flows and price discovery, so they plausibly contributed to the jump.
Duplicate coverage of China's 1.2 Mt shipment to India under the loosened export controls, affecting global supply and demand balance ahead of the move.
