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The author argues that a resumed US-China trade war would likely prompt Beijing to weaken the renminbi, as it did in the past 18 months. The PBoC's daily fixing sets the midpoint of a band around spot, and the central bank intervenes when spot reaches either edge of the band.
A deliberately weaker renminbi would make Chinese exports more competitive and raise the cost of dollar-priced commodity imports. That combination could reduce China's demand for US farm goods while supporting its export sectors.
在过去 14 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后,人民币(每 USD 的 CNY) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.0%(36% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +0.2%),20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。