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Purdue economist Jayson Lusk reports beef processing running 35-40% below last year's capacity due to COVID-19 shutdowns. Wholesale beef prices are up 67% since January while live cattle prices are down 24%.
Plant closures cut packer demand for fed cattle, pushing live cattle prices down, while reduced meat supply bids up boxed beef. Feeder buyers face a wide cattle-to-beef price spread.
wlj.netJayson Lusk, Agricultural Economics Department head, Purdue University2020年5月15日在过去 70 次看跌的疫病事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
在过去 46 次看跌的疫病事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.3% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +1.8%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Packing capacity running 35-40% below last year while wholesale beef rose and live cattle fell shows a wide margin that gave futures room to rebound as plants reopened.
