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Feeder cattle futures spreads across all months have recovered to near pre-COVID levels as quarantine restrictions and packing plant capacity issues have largely been resolved. Pasture conditions have deteriorated, with the share rated poor or very poor rising since late May and running well worse than the five-year average, driven by drought spreading from the Southwest into the Great Plains.
The author notes producers may need to market weaned calves earlier or winter them.
Deteriorating pasture forces earlier calf sales and adds supply to feeder markets, which could pressure prices, while cheaper corn would support feedlot margins. Producers can use futures spreads to lock in margins.
u.osu.eduSmith at2020年7月29日在过去 21 次中性的天气事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.7%（67% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.1% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
在过去 20 次中性的天气事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（60% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +1.2%），20 个交易日内为 +3.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
