
StoneX analyst Nate Donnay estimates that US government dairy purchases in 2020 pushed the CME block cheese price up about 64 cents per pound and butter up 31 cents from May through November. He estimates the purchases lifted the average Class III milk price by about $6.30/cwt and Class IV by about $1.31/cwt.
Purchases through the food box program and other programs totaled roughly $1.33 billion.
Government buying has been a major source of dairy price support and volatility, so feed buyers should expect dairy-linked demand and milk prices to be sensitive to any reduction in these programs.
在过去 17 次看涨的政策事件之后,牛奶(III类) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%(29% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +0.2%),20 个交易日内为 -3.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Shows government food box purchases had inflated cheese and Class III prices, so their fading removed support and fed the reversal.