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ING analysts said their bearish 2021 dollar view rests on the Fed keeping policy loose and on a synchronised global recovery, and both premises are now being questioned. They argued it is too early for wholesale changes to their dollar forecasts.
The note discusses reflation trades including higher commodities and a weaker dollar.
If the dollar strengthens rather than weakens, commodity prices denominated in dollars face less support, although ING still expects a weaker dollar over the year.
think.ing.comChris Turner2021年1月28日在过去 359 次中性的宏观事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.0%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.4% 至 +0.4%），20 个交易日内为 -0.1%。
在过去 129 次中性的宏观事件之后，欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%（45% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +0.5%），20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
