
China's beef production is expected to expand as high prices for all meat proteins, driven by African swine fever cutting domestic pork output, encourage herd growth. A USDA GAIN report forecasts China's 2021 pork output up 14% to 47 million tonnes, though analysts question that given new ASF outbreaks and pork reserve releases.
Substitution toward beef raises import demand and supports global beef and cattle prices, while a shortfall in pork supports demand for alternative proteins and feed-linked markets.
在过去 148 次看涨的疫病事件之后,活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%(62% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +1.2%),20 个交易日内为 +1.4%。
在过去 117 次看跌的疫病事件之后,生猪(瘦肉型) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%(36% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +1.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。