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A study by agricultural economists estimates that retaliatory tariffs in the 2018/19 trade conflict cut US agricultural exports by $13.5 to $18.7 billion annually. Bulk commodities suffered most, and exports were not effectively redirected to non-retaliating markets.
The study compares these losses with USDA trade aid.
The findings document past export losses on bulk crops like soybeans and corn, but they describe history rather than new demand changes.
在过去 250 次中性的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(50% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
在过去 480 次中性的贸易事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。