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StoneX's fertilizer analyst expects phosphate prices to stay firm after China told domestic producers to slow or stop exports, and China supplies about a third of global phosphate exports. Hurricane Ida removed about 300,000 tons of North American production, and Mosaic stopped selling MAP for the rest of the year while still offering DAP.
Inventories are tight and countervailing duties limit imports.
With global export supply reduced and North American inventories low, phosphate prices are likely to stay elevated into the spring application season, raising costs for US producers.
stonex.comJosh Linville2021年10月1日在过去 151 次看涨的政策事件之后，DAP 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.6% 至 +0.9%），20 个交易日内为 +1.9%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
StoneX expects firm phosphate prices because China curbs exports (about a third of global trade), Ida removed about 300k tons of output, and tight inventories plus duties limit imports, all of which support DAP.
