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A Scientific Reports study by Yu, Miao and Khanna examines US corn and soybean yields from 1951 to 2017. It finds that heat and drought tolerance raised yields but that maladaptation to normal conditions cut them, and projects climate change could reduce corn and soybean yields by 39-68% and 86-92% by 2050 before technology gains.
The research is long-run and does not describe current market conditions.
The findings point to long-run yield pressure from climate change, which matters for future supply, but it has little direct effect on near-term corn and soybean prices.
nature.comYu, Chengzheng, Miao, Ruiqing, Khanna, Madhu2021年7月1日在过去 2,467 次天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +1.7%），20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
在过去 1,964 次天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
