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African swine fever was detected in the Dominican Republic in July 2021 and has spread across the Caribbean, the first detection in the Western Hemisphere in about 40 years. The article warns that the disease is close to the US and could halt pork exports worth more than $7 billion a year if it arrived.
The USDA has pledged $500 million for surveillance.
A US outbreak would likely cut domestic hog demand and close export markets, which is bearish for lean hog prices. The risk is still conditional, so the current price effect is limited to sentiment.
wired.comMaryn McKenna2021年10月12日在过去 117 次看跌的疫病事件之后，生猪(瘦肉型) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（36% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.2% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +1.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
