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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology has declared La Niña conditions in effect, following the US Climate Prediction Center's declaration in late October. Models suggest the event will be brief, peaking around the new year and fading to neutral by spring in the Northern Hemisphere.
A confirmed La Niña points to drier conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil and a drier southern US, which can support soybean and corn prices if dryness materializes. The short expected duration limits the upside.
在过去 1,079 次看涨的天气事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 1,465 次看涨的天气事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。