
K-State extension reports that higher grain prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine have pushed marketing year average prices up, which may keep ARC and PLC government program payments from being triggered. The analysis draws on updated MYA price estimates tied to the February USDA Agricultural Prices report.
Higher price estimates reduce the likelihood of government risk-program payments, so producers must rely more on market sales and hedges, which can add to near-term farm marketing pressure on grain. The effect on feed prices is indirect and mainly reflects the rally already seen in wheat and corn.
在过去 318 次看涨的政策事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(48% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.5%),20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
在过去 37 次看涨的政策事件之后,小麦(HRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.1%(41% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -3.4% 至 +2.0%),20 个交易日内为 -3.3%。
在过去 182 次看涨的政策事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%(52% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.9% 至 +1.4%),20 个交易日内为 -0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。