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An analysis from the Bruegel think tank says the euro's near-parity with the dollar, last seen in November 2002, mainly reflects dollar strength driven by faster US rate hikes. It argues the euro's effective exchange rate, a measure of competitiveness, has not deteriorated structurally.
The analysis suggests the currency move is mainly dollar-driven rather than a sign of euro weakness, so it may persist while US rates stay higher. That keeps dollar-denominated commodity costs elevated for European buyers.
bruegel.orgAlicia García-Herrero2022年7月19日在过去 533 次看跌的宏观事件之后，欧元(每 EUR 的 USD) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.3%（33% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.2% 至 +0.2%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
在过去 2,356 次看涨的宏观事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（60% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.3% 至 +0.7%），20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
