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Southeast Asia depends heavily on imported synthetic fertilizers, with Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand importing over 80% of supply in 2020. Russia and Belarus supply about 40% of global potash exports, and Indonesia, Vietnam, Brunei and Malaysia were most exposed to the war.
Thailand approved a $1.8 billion potash mine reopening and Indonesia reopened a fertilizer plant.
New domestic potash and fertilizer capacity in Southeast Asia could gradually ease regional import demand, a modestly bearish factor for potash over time. Dependence on Russian supply keeps regional cost risk elevated.
fulcrum.sg2023年4月14日历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 26 次中性的政策事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -1.0%（27% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -4.1% 至 +0.6%），20 个交易日内为 -2.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
