
A US forecaster says El Niño is returning with extreme weather expected. The El Niño could cut Australian winter crop output by 34% and affect palm oil and rice production in Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand, which together supply 80% of world palm oil.
Reduced output from Australia and Southeast Asia would tighten wheat, palm oil and rice supplies, supporting prices for these feed-relevant commodities. The impact on Southeast Asian palm oil is especially significant given its share of world supply.
在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后,小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%(55% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 181 次看涨的天气事件之后,棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%(56% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -0.9% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
在过去 179 次看涨的天气事件之后,稻谷 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%(55% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.5%),20 个交易日内为 +2.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。