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Commerzbank says the Brazilian real is well positioned over the medium term despite expected central bank rate cuts, and that the central bank could cut the Selic by 50 basis points to 11.75%. It warns the real could weaken in the short term if markets price in faster cuts.
The bank argues downside for the currency is limited given the central bank's inflation credibility.
A firmer real makes Brazilian soybean and corn exports less competitive in dollar terms and can slow farmer selling, while a weaker real would support export flows. The outlook is a currency view rather than a supply or demand shock.
octaafrica.net2023年12月13日在过去 92 次中性的宏观事件之后，巴西雷亚尔(每 USD 的 BRL) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（58% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.7% 至 +1.4%），20 个交易日内为 +0.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
