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BofA analysts expect European gas prices to rise into winter 2025/26 as TTF has doubled since February. They flag risks of lost Russian supply in January and the absence of Ukrainian auxiliary storage.
Jefferies also sees near-term prices reflecting heightened geopolitical risk around the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk, near the Sudzha gas metering station.
Expected higher winter gas prices and geopolitical supply risk raise European energy and fertilizer costs. This tends to support nitrogen and energy-linked input prices for feed.
naturalgasintel.com2024年8月29日在过去 136 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，天然气 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +2.7%（63% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.8% 至 +8.8%），20 个交易日内为 +4.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
