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Strategie Grains by Expana forecasts China's barley imports will fall 35-40% this campaign to about 9.7 million tonnes, down from record levels. Record domestic corn and wheat harvests, high carry-in stocks and weak pig sector profitability are cited as reasons.
Early 2024/25 import data nonetheless shows a strong pace, helped by normalised flows from Ukraine and Australia.
A large drop in Chinese feed barley demand weakens a key import market and pressures global barley prices. Cheaper corn and ample supply add to the downside.
expanamarkets.comNick Wood2024年11月21日历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
在过去 480 次中性的贸易事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
