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Morningstar analysts say a US-Russia arrangement to exclude the Black Sea from the conflict would let Russia export fertilizer using EU ships if the EU approves. They expect limited price effects because Russian exports have already found markets in China and India.
They also expect potash prices to rise in 2025 as Belarus and Russia cut production.
Restored Russian fertilizer access adds supply that could cap prices, but the effect is expected to be small. Production cuts by Belarus and Russia support potash prices, which keeps input costs firm for feed-crop producers.
morningstar.comSeth Goldstein, CFA, Larry MacDougal via AP2025年3月26日在过去 11 次中性的地缘政治事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（64% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.0% 至 +5.9%），20 个交易日内为 +7.8%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
