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ABRAFRIGO estimates Brazil could lose up to $1.3 billion in beef and livestock-related exports to the US in the second half of 2025 if a 50% US import surcharge takes effect in August. Annual losses could reach at least $3 billion from 2026.
Beef tallow, for which the US takes nearly all of Brazil's exports, is of particular concern.
A 50% US tariff would shut Brazilian beef and tallow out of a major market, redirecting supply to other destinations and pressuring global beef and tallow prices. US beef supply constraints could partly offset the effect in domestic prices.
valorinternational.globo.comRafael Walendorff2025年7月17日在过去 78 次看涨的贸易事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.2%），20 个交易日内为 +0.5%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
