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Farmdoc analysis says USDA projects relatively low 2025/26 ending stocks, yet new-crop December corn has traded between about $4.10 and $4.30 per bushel since early July. The author attributes the gap to market expectations for unrealized yield figures that differ from USDA estimates.
The first official NASS yield estimate is due in August.
The disconnect between tight projected balance sheets and historically low prices means the August NASS yield report could trigger sizable corn price volatility.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia Jiao2025年7月24日在过去 770 次中性的报告事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.1% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +0.7%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
