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farmdoc daily's Jonathan Coppess ranks the large increases in statutory reference prices in the reconciliation farm bill as the third most problematic farm policy change. He notes the change is the most expensive in the bill, with ARC/PLC payments updated in the Policy Design Lab modeling.
Higher reference prices raise support payments that can keep acreage in row crops, a bearish factor for corn and soybean prices over time.
在过去 310 次看跌的政策事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%(54% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%),20 个交易日内为 +0.6%。
在过去 369 次看跌的政策事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(46% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.8%),20 个交易日内为 +0.8%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。