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USDA's Prospective Plantings report put 2026 all-wheat plantings at 43.8M acres, the lowest since records began in 1919 and 1.0M acres below trade expectations. Winter wheat conditions in southern Plains states continued to deteriorate, with Kansas good/excellent ratings down 20 points this year, and HRW futures hit their highest spot level since June 2024.
Smaller acreage plus Plains drought points to a smaller US wheat crop, supporting wheat prices and feed-grain substitution costs. Market reaction is bullish across SRW, HRW and spring classes.
crmagri.comMike Verdin2026年3月31日在过去 769 次看涨的报告事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（53% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.2%。
在过去 2,389 次报告事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 0.0%（50% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.1%。
在过去 3,207 次报告事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.3% 至 +1.7%），20 个交易日内为 +0.5%。
历史可比事件尚不足，暂无法给出历史解读。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Record-low US wheat plantings and deteriorating Kansas HRW conditions tightened expected supply and pushed HRW futures to their highest since mid-2024, which supports the price move.
