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Beef prices are at record highs while the US cattle herd is at a record low, and consumer demand has stayed steady. New World screwworm has reappeared in northern Mexico, with more than 1,800 active cases reported by mid-May, close to the Texas border.
An outbreak in Texas could shrink the herd further and push beef prices higher.
A shrinking herd plus a possible screwworm outbreak keeps cattle supply tight, supporting live and feeder cattle prices and raising feedlot costs for buyers.
dallasfed.orgEthan Dixon, Mariam Yousuf2026年5月20日在过去 148 次看涨的疫病事件之后，活牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（62% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +1.2%），20 个交易日内为 +1.4%。
在过去 122 次看涨的疫病事件之后，架子牛 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（60% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.0% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 +2.0%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
