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BBC Weather reports growing confidence that the developing El Niño could be one of the strongest on record, possibly peaking as a very strong event in autumn. NOAA gives a two-in-three chance of strong or very strong El Niño by winter.
Scientists warn of record global temperatures and humanitarian impacts, including a likely record-warm 2027.
A very strong El Niño peaking in autumn would raise the risk of crop shortfalls in multiple regions during the 2026-27 season, supporting wheat and other grain prices.
bbc.comSimon King2026年6月1日在过去 1,072 次看涨的天气事件之后，小麦(SRW) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（55% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.3%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
