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The IRI's September update says a very strong El Niño is intensifying, with Niño 3.4 at +3.0°C in mid-September. All 22 models expect it to stay very strong through winter 2026-27, and it could rank among the strongest on record.
A record-strength El Niño raises the risk of dryness in Southeast Asian palm oil areas and shifts South American crop prospects, supporting vegetable oil prices over the coming months.
iri.columbia.edu2026年9月21日在过去 181 次看涨的天气事件之后，棕榈油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.5%（56% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.9% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
