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Farmdoc researchers revisit the RIN cliff of 2023 and early 2024, when renewable diesel supply exceeded RFS mandates and pushed D4 RIN prices toward zero. They explain that the extreme outcome is not stable and that RIN prices must rebound to incentivize mandated production.
The article assesses the chance of a repeat.
A future RIN collapse would signal oversupply of biomass-based diesel and weaken soybean oil demand from biofuels, so the prospect of recurrence is bearish for soybean oil.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia Jiao2025年1月15日在过去 351 次看跌的政策事件之后，豆油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.0%（49% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.8%），20 个交易日内为 -0.2%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
