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Purdue's Scott Irwin says the biggest uncertainty for renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel is how the new Trump administration will set 2026 RVOs, along with implementation of the 45Z tax credit. He describes three biofuel booms since 2000, with renewable diesel the most recent.
Irwin notes that sustainable aviation fuel production remains low.
Uncertainty over 2026 RVOs and 45Z makes soybean oil biofuel demand hard to forecast, which adds risk premium and volatility to soybean oil pricing.
iasoybeans.comIowa Soybean Association2025年1月2日在过去 196 次中性的政策事件之后，豆油 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.1%（52% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.6% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.5%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
