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About half of US soybean output shipped to China in 2023, worth $15.2 billion, but Chinese buyers have shifted to Brazil and the US share of China's soybean imports fell to 18% this year. US corn exports to China have also lost ground to Brazil since 2022.
Trump's tariff threat puts a large share of US soybean and corn export demand at risk, and continued diversion to Brazil weakens the US export basis and futures prices.
在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后,大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%(51% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%),20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 683 次看跌的贸易事件之后,玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.2%(47% 上涨;中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.6%),20 个交易日内为 +0.3%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件;仅描述已发生的情况,不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。