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Rabobank expects a high likelihood of renewed US-China trade war escalation under Trump's second term, with China likely to retaliate against soybeans and grains. Rabobank says China's impact may be smaller than in 2018-2019 due to state reserves, more Brazilian imports and lower-protein feed formulas.
A renewed trade war could cut US farmgate soybean prices by $1.50 to $2.00 per bushel and reduce acreage by up to 5 million acres.
Expected retaliation against US soybeans would reduce export demand and lower farmgate prices. Rabobank's forecast of possible small-batch purchases as goodwill gestures suggests a partial offset.
rabobank.comLief Chiang Senior Analyst2025年1月6日在过去 803 次看跌的贸易事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.0%（51% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.7% 至 +1.7%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
