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Climate Impact Company reports that 73.7% of the US is in dry-to-drought conditions, with D3 extreme drought in key Corn Belt states. A transition from La Niña to El Niño is expected in mid-to-late 2026.
Analog years 1997 and 2023 point to worsening drought risk in Iowa and the Gulf States for June through September.
A forecast of worsening summer drought in Iowa and the Gulf States would raise the risk of crop losses and lift corn and soybean prices. The analogs are preliminary and only a few years, so the signal is uncertain.
climateimpactcompany.comScott Yuknis2026年2月22日在过去 1,465 次看涨的天气事件之后，玉米 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.2%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +1.9%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
在过去 1,079 次看涨的天气事件之后，大豆 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.3%（54% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.4% 至 +2.0%），20 个交易日内为 +0.9%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
