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Fertilizer shipments to Asia have stalled because of the Hormuz closure following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February. Thai fertilizer prices have jumped from 800-900 baht to over 1,100 baht per sack, and some farmers are skipping planting.
Reduced fertilizer application in Asian rice systems threatens yields and could tighten rice supply, supporting rice prices later in the year.
bbc.comShawn Yuan2026年5月1日在过去 12 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，稻谷 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +1.6%（58% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -0.5% 至 +6.8%），20 个交易日内为 +5.4%。
在过去 205 次看涨的地缘政治事件之后，尿素 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 +0.4%（53% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -2.1% 至 +3.0%），20 个交易日内为 -0.4%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
Stalled fertilizer shipments via Hormuz and higher fertilizer prices push Asian farmers to skip planting, an input-cost supply channel underpinning the rally.
Stalled fertilizer shipments through Hormuz and higher fertilizer prices are causing some farmers to skip planting, which is a supply-side driver.
Stalled fertilizer shipments to Asia from the Hormuz closure raise input costs and the risk of reduced planting, which supports a supply-driven price rise.
