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August WTI crude closed down 6.04% on Tuesday after President Trump announced an Israel-Iran ceasefire, and gasoline also fell sharply. Crude losses accelerated after Trump said China could keep buying Iranian oil, which fueled speculation of relief from Iranian sanctions.
OPEC+ output increases of 411,000 bpd for July add to glut concerns.
Removal of the geopolitical premium, possible Iranian sanctions relief, and OPEC+ supply increases all add bearish pressure to crude, lowering energy-linked costs for oilseed products. A weaker dollar index provides some offsetting support for dollar-priced commodities.
barchart.comRich Asplund2025年6月24日在过去 255 次看跌的地缘政治事件之后，原油(WTI) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -2.4%（31% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -7.0% 至 +1.7%），20 个交易日内为 -5.0%。
在过去 250 次看跌的地缘政治事件之后，原油(Brent) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -3.1%（36% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -7.9% 至 +1.6%），20 个交易日内为 -5.5%。
在过去 33 次看跌的地缘政治事件之后，美元(广义) 在 5 个交易日内中位数变动 -0.6%（33% 上涨；中间一半区间为 -1.5% 至 +0.2%），20 个交易日内为 -0.8%。
各商品基准价相对事件前最后收盘价的变动。历史数据汇总同类过往事件；仅描述已发生的情况，不代表未来走势。不构成投资建议。
The Trump-announced Israel-Iran ceasefire and the sanctions-relief talk on Iranian oil drove a further ~6% drop on June 24, and OPEC+ supply additions added to glut concerns.
WTI fell 6% after the ceasefire; Trump's comment that China could keep buying Iranian oil and OPEC+ supply increases added bearish supply pressure.
