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StoneX analyst Josh Linville expects global phosphate values to stay under pressure into mid-2023 because world demand has been weaker than expected. He also cites China returning to normal export volumes and a high-cost Florida producer seeing its costs fall.
Expected weak demand and rising Chinese supply point to lower phosphate prices, which lowers DAP costs for feed phosphate buyers. Fall and spring demand are seen as cautious, so the pressure may persist.
stonex.comJosh Linville27 Nis 2023stonex.comJosh Linville27 Nis 2023480 geçmiş nötr ticaret olayları olayından sonra, Mısır 5 seansta medyan +%0,2 hareket etti (%54 daha yüksek; orta yarı %-1,1 ile +%1,6 arası) ve 20 seansta +%0,7.
40 geçmiş düşüş yanlı ticaret olayları olayından sonra, DAP 5 seansta medyan %-0,1 hareket etti (%38 daha yüksek; orta yarı %-3,7 ile +%0,5 arası) ve 20 seansta %-2,4.
Her emtianın referansının olaydan önceki son kapanışa göre hareketi. Geçmiş okumalar aynı türdeki geçmiş olayları birleştirir; neyin olduğunu anlatır, neyin olacağını değil. Yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.
StoneX expects phosphate prices to stay under pressure because global demand is weaker than expected, China is returning to normal export volumes, and a high-cost Florida producer's costs are falling, all of which point to bearish supply and demand fundamentals consistent with a sharp DAP drop.
Dated 2023-04-27, a day before the drop, it signals weak global phosphate demand, China returning to normal export volumes and falling producer costs, all bearish for DAP prices and plausibly feeding a sharp one-day selloff.
StoneX's bearish view on phosphates (weak global demand, China returning to normal export volumes, falling producer costs) published on the move date points to supply-side and sentiment pressure on DAP prices.
StoneX expects phosphate values to stay under pressure due to weaker-than-expected demand and China returning to normal export volumes, which reinforces the bearish supply/demand mechanism.
